Bitcoin short-term holders form important nearby BTC price support levels, but a gap remains between $110,000 and $115,000.
Glassnode suggests that the price may drop to “fill” that gap.
Short-term holder profit-taking may cap BTC price upside at about $140,000 in the event of a breakout.
Bitcoin (BTC) may face a “key” support test that takes BTC price action to $110,000 next, new research said.
In the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Week Onchain, crypto analytics firm Glassnode revealed a new BTC price magnet.
Glassnode: Bitcoin cost basis gap has “gravity”
Bitcoin’s short-term holders (STHs) could be responsible for the next BTC price dip, one that takes the market down 7%, back to $110,000.
STH investors, defined as entities hodling for up to 155 days, often provide BTC price support in areas where many enter the market. Their aggregate purchase price, variously known as cost basis or realized price, is a reference point during Bitcoin bull markets.
Glassnode said that when BTC/USD rose quickly from $110,000 to $115,000 this month, there was little time for investors to step in and buy.
“By examining Bitcoin’s Cost-Basis Distribution profile, we can see a significant concentration of investor cost basis levels around the $117k-$122k region. This highlights a large volume of investor accumulation has taken place at this elevated price point,” it said.
“Noticeably, there remains an air-gap of volume just beneath the spot price, from $115k to $110k, a result of price rallying through the region without much opportunity for coins to transact along the way.”
Bitcoin cost basis distribution heatmap (screenshot). Source: Glassnode
The absence of cost-basis support leaves the door open for price to fill the void, much like it fills gaps in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market created at weekends.
“Not all air-gaps like this one must be back-filled, but a gravity does exist there, and the market may want to re-confirm if support will step in. This marks this area as a key zone to watch in the event of a price pullback,” Glassnode added.
Speculator profits create BTC price targets
The STH cost basis can be broken down to reflect the aggregate purchase price of increasingly new investors. This, in turn, offers a ladder of potential support levels.
Related: ‘Biggest trade deal ever’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Bitcoin STH cost basis by cohort (screenshot). Source: Glassnode
Those levels are also used to identify future prices at which STH cohorts will enjoy a certain level of profitability, and potentially sell their BTC.
Glassnode employs standard deviation to predict a possible local top level around $140,000 should BTC/USD return to price discovery.
“Should the market break convincingly higher, the $141K region is likely to present the next major zone of resistance where sell-side pressure may intensify rapidly, aligned with the +2σ band,” it summarized.
Bitcoin STH cost basis standard deviations (screenshot). Source: Glassnode
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium turned negative after a 62-day buying streak.
BTC continues to hold above $115,000 despite rising sell pressure and a negative futures CVD.
The Bitcoin (BTC) Coinbase Premium Index has turned negative for the first time since May 29, ending 62 days of being positive. The metric, which tracks the price difference between Coinbase’s BTC/USD and Binance’s BTC/USDT pairs, is commonly used as a proxy for US spot demand.
This market shift comes after an even longer 94-day run of a sustained positive premium gap, marking Bitcoin’s strongest institutional demand period on record. While the flip may hint at fading appetite from US buyers, broader market signals suggest a more nuanced setup is forming.
According to onchain analyst Boris Vest, Bitcoin’s taker buy/sell ratio has dropped to 0.9, indicating increased selling from market makers. Despite the sell-side aggression, Bitcoin’s price continues to hold higher levels above $115,000, signaling that larger passive buyers are stepping in to absorb the pressure.
Meanwhile, the futures funding rate remains neutral at 0.01, showing neither bullish nor bearish dominance, which implies that leverage is balanced and a larger move remains on the cards.
Vest also highlighted that the futures’ cumulative volume delta (CVD) continues to reflect persistent sell pressure without causing any major breakdowns in price. This divergence between volume and price action suggests underlying strength and may set the stage for a liquidity-driven shakeout before any sustainable upward move.
Related: Bitcoin price gained 50% the last time its volatility fell this low
Bitcoin is at a crossroads moment
While fresh spot demand appears to be cooling, there are signs that profit-taking is also tapering off. The Net Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) metric shows no evidence of large-scale exits, and the Adjusted SOPR remains well below the 1.10 threshold typically associated with market tops. These indicators suggest that investors remain confident in the current market structure and are not rushing to secure profits.
Bitcoin Net Realized Profit and Loss. Source: CryptoQuant
Macro conditions further support this view. The US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report on Tuesday came in slightly weaker than expected, reinforcing a “Goldilocks” backdrop that favors risk assets. Meanwhile, Consumer confidence rebounded after a six-month decline, reflecting a broader recovery in investor sentiment.
Bitcoin remains in a neutral position, and the next decisive move may follow the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Commenting on the potential for volatility, trader Titan of Crypto pointed to tightening Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, a technical indicator that measures volatility. When these bands compress, it often signals that a major breakout or breakdown is imminent. The analyst said,
“Bitcoin in a pressure cooker. Bollinger Bands are squeezing = volatility is drying up. RSI is compressing too. A big move is brewing.”
Bitcoin one-day analysis by Titan of Crypto. Source: X
Related: Bitcoin bulls aim to chase liquidity at $122K, but Q3 seasonality could stall breakouts
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
A surprise Federal Reserve interest rate cut could reduce the appeal of fixed income, pushing some capital toward assets like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin benefits from loose monetary policy as excess liquidity and strong macro conditions boost risk appetite.
Bitcoin (BTC) could rally above $140,000 if the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) delivers a surprise cut below the current 4% level. While most market participants anticipate no change in rates for today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting, even a small reduction could lower returns on fixed income, pushing traders toward higher-yielding alternatives and increasing demand for risk assets.
Fed meeting comes amid strong macro data and inflation easing
According to the CME FedWatch tool, which calculates implied interest rates from US Treasury note pricing, the odds of maintaining current levels stand at 97%. What makes the situation unusual is that the meeting comes as macroeconomic data has been consistently strong — inflation has cooled, recession risks have faded, and growth has held steady.
Implied Fed Fund rates expectations for July 30. Source: CME FedWatch.
The US economy expanded at a 3% annualized rate in the second quarter, based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate. This growth followed a surge in imports ahead of President Trump’s global trade war. Market sentiment has shifted sharply: the probability of a US recession in 2025 fell to 17% on the Polymarket prediction platform, down from a 66% peak in May.
Inflationary pressures have also eased. The June Producer Price Index (PPI), released July 16, rose just 2.3% from a year earlier, the lowest reading since September 2024. CNBC reported that US import tariffs are having only a marginal effect on the economy and consumer prices. Even so, Fed officials remain wary of potential downstream effects from trade policy.
US Producer Price Index Change, year-over-year. Source: TradingEconomics
US President Trump has repeatedly criticized the Fed’s monetary stance, calling on Chair Jerome Powell to cut rates without delay. “No Inflation! Let people buy, and refinance their homes!” the President urged. Powell, however, has given no indication he plans to change course this week, according to Yahoo Finance.
Bitcoin benefits from loose policy, but depends on broader money supply growth
For Bitcoin investors, looser monetary policy is generally supportive, though it hinges on more than the Fed’s benchmark rate. Risk-on assets are heavily influenced by the growth of the money supply, especially M2, which includes cash, savings accounts, certificates of deposit, and money market funds. M2 expansion is also affected by the US Treasury’s decisions on debt issuance.
A higher liquidity environment tends to benefit both the S&P 500 and Bitcoin, though the effect is often gradual. A rate cut to 3.75% from 4% could push investors away from the $25.4 trillion government and corporate bond markets. Even if inflation holds below 2.5%, the fixed income yield advantage would diminish, making risk assets more attractive.
Lower interest rates also reduce borrowing costs for companies and households, encouraging greater leverage over time. This added liquidity fuels economic activity and, in turn, investor willingness to take on risk. Historically, Bitcoin performs well during such phases, when more capital is available and job market conditions remain stable.
Related:Bitcoin momentum loss is pre-FOMC derisking, not a trend change
World’s largest tradable assets by market capitalization, USD. Source: 8marketcap
At first glance, a $140k Bitcoin price may seem ambitious, requiring a 19% rise from the current $117,600. However, such a move would imply a $2.78 trillion market capitalization, still an 87% discount to gold’s $22.5 trillion valuation. For perspective, Nvidia (NVDA), now the world’s most valuable company, commands a $4.36 trillion market cap.
While the probability of a rate cut this Wednesday is low, Bitcoin stands to be one of the biggest beneficiaries if it happens. The S&P 500, already valued at $56.4 trillion, has far less room to gain from investors shifting out of fixed income.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Bitcoin remains stuck in a narrow range, suggesting a breakout could be around the corner.
The FOMC minutes and Federal Reserve interest rate decision could set the tone for crypto’s next steps.
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade near the $120,000 resistance, indicating that the bulls have kept up the pressure. Although Bitcoin is on a strong wicket, the up move may face seasonal headwinds. According to Axel Adler Jr., BTC has recorded an average return of just 2.56% in August in the past 13 years.
However, near-term uncertainty or August’s historical weakness has not stopped Strategy from buying more BTC. The firm said on Tuesday that it had acquired 21,021 BTC at an average price of $117,256, boosting its total holding to 628,791 BTC.
Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360
As BTC consolidates, Ether (ETH) and BNB (BNB) have been gaining ground. Glassnode said in a post on X that ETH’s perpetual futures volume dominance has surpassed BTC, marking the “largest volume skew” on record. The “shift confirms a meaningful rotation of speculative interest toward the altcoin sector,” the analytics platform added.
Could BTC break out of its range? Will select altcoins continue their bull run? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price prediction
BTC continues to trade inside a tight range between $115,000 and $120,000. The longer the price stays inside a narrow range, the larger the eventual breakout from it.
The upsloping 20-day simple moving average ($118,313) and the relative strength index (RSI) in the positive territory indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If buyers drive the price above $120,000, the BTC/USDT pair could pick up momentum and surge to a new all-time high above $123,218. The pair may then ascend to $135,000.
Conversely, a break and close below $115,000 suggests the bears have overpowered the bulls. That could sink the price to $110,530. This is a vital support to keep an eye on because a break below it opens the gates for a drop to $100,000.
Ether price prediction
ETH is trying to maintain above the breakout level of $3,745, signaling that the bulls are not hurrying to book profits as they anticipate another leg higher.
If the price rebounds off the $3,745 support, the ETH/USDT pair could reach the overhead resistance at $4,094. Sellers are expected to pose a strong challenge at $4,094, but if the bulls prevail, the pair could skyrocket toward $4,868.
Instead, if the price turns down and breaks below $3,745, it suggests that the bulls have given up. That could tug the price to the 20-day SMA ($3,516), where the buyers are expected to step in. If the price rebounds off the 20-day SMA with strength, the bulls will again try to pierce the overhead resistance.
XRP price prediction
XRP (XRP) is witnessing a tough battle between the buyers and sellers at the 20-day SMA ($3.16).
If the price skids below the $3.05 support, the next stop is likely to be $2.95. Buyers are expected to fiercely defend the $2.95 level because a break below it could start a deeper correction toward $2.65.
Alternatively, a strong rebound off the $2.95 level suggests solid demand at lower levels. The 20-day SMA could act as a resistance on the way up, but if the bulls overcome it, the XRP/USDT pair may climb to $3.33 and, after that, to $3.66.
BNB price prediction
BNB has pulled back to the breakout level of $794, which is a crucial support to watch out for.
If the price rebounds off $794 with strength, it suggests that the bulls are trying to flip the level into support. If that happens, the BNB/USDT pair could retest the all-time high of $861. A break and close above $861 could start the next leg of the uptrend to $900.
On the contrary, a break and close below the $794 level signals profit-booking by short-term buyers. The pair could then dip to the 20-day SMA ($751), which is likely to attract buyers. Sellers will have to yank the pair below the 20-day SMA to gain the upper hand.
Solana price prediction
Solana (SOL) has pulled back to the 20-day SMA ($178), which is likely to act as solid support.
If the price rebounds off the 20-day SMA with strength, the bulls will again try to push the SOL/USDT pair toward the overhead resistance of $209. A break and close above $209 could open the doors for a rally to $240. There is minor resistance at $220, but it is likely to be crossed.
Contrarily, a break and close below the 20-day SMA could tug the price to the 50-day SMA ($160). That suggests the pair may extend its stay inside the large range between $110 and $209 for a few more days.
Dogecoin price prediction
Dogecoin (DOGE) turned down from $0.25 on Monday and broke below the 20-day SMA ($0.22) on Tuesday, indicating selling on rallies.
The next support is at $0.21. If the price bounces off $0.21 and breaks above the 20-day SMA, the bulls will try to push the DOGE/USDT pair to $0.26 and later to $0.29. Sellers are expected to defend the $0.29 level with all their might because a close above it could propel the pair to $0.35 and then to $0.44.
On the other hand, a break and close below $0.21 could sink the pair to the 50-day SMA ($0.19). That suggests the pair may remain inside the large $0.14 to $0.29 range for a while longer.
Cardano price prediction
Cardano (ADA) slipped below the 20-day SMA ($0.79) on Tuesday, indicating that the bears are trying to take charge.
There is support at $0.76, but if the level breaks down, the ADA/USDT pair could extend the correction to $0.73 and then to the 50-day SMA ($0.67). Such a fall suggests that the pair may remain inside the $0.50 to $0.86 range for a while.
The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day SMA. That suggests a lack of aggressive selling at lower levels. The bulls will then try to push the pair above the $0.86 resistance.
Related: $3 price at risk? Why XRP was one of the worst performers this week
Hyperliquid price prediction
Hyperliquid (HYPE) has been stuck between the support line of the ascending channel and the 20-day SMA ($45.13).
The failure of the bulls to push the price above the 20-day SMA increases the risk of a break below the support line. If that happens, the HYPE/USDT pair could correct to $36 and subsequently to $32.
This negative view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns up and rises above the 20-day SMA. The pair may then climb to the $48 to $49.87 overhead resistance zone.
Stellar price prediction
Stellar (XLM) plunged below the 20-day SMA ($0.44) on Monday, and the bears defended the level during a retest on Tuesday.
Sellers will try to strengthen their position by pulling the price below $0.40. If they manage to do that, the XLM/USDT pair could decline to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.37 and then to the 61.8% retracement level of $0.34.
Buyers are likely to have other plans. They will try to make a comeback by pushing the price above $0.46. If they can pull it off, the pair could retest the overhead resistance of $0.52. The next leg of the rally to $0.64 could begin on a close above $0.52.
Sui price prediction
Sui (SUI) rose above the $4.30 resistance on Sunday, but the breakout proved to be a bull trap as the price turned down sharply on Monday.
The bears are trying to sustain the price below the 20-day SMA ($3.85). If they do that, the SUI/USDT pair could drop to $3.51. Buyers are expected to fiercely defend the zone between $3.51 and the 50-day SMA ($3.27).
If the price turns up from $3.51 and breaks above the 20-day SMA, it suggests a possible range formation. The pair may swing between $3.51 and $4.30 for some time. A break and close above $4.30 could start a new uptrend toward $5.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) two-day meeting started on Tuesday with the policy decision on the interest rate expected on Wednesday at 2:00 pm ET.
Market participants expect the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged, despite pressure from President Donald Trump to lower rates.
Related: Bitcoin momentum loss is pre-FOMC derisking, not a trend change
Polymarket sees a 97.5% chance that the current interest rates will remain between 4.25% and 4.50%, and just a 2.3% probability of a 0.25% rate cut.
Interest rate expectations. Source: Polymarket
A common market belief is that any bearish price action from unchanged interest rates is already priced in.
Traders appeared to “panic sell” on Tuesday as uncertainty grew around Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech after the meeting, said crypto investor TedPillows.
“People likely dumped their bags in fear. But they’ll probably end up FOMO buying back in at higher prices after the Fed speaks,” the analyst added, explaining that it is a familiar pattern that has historically preceded strong moves in August.
“Then August hits, everything goes parabolic. And the sidelined traders? They end up chasing, again.”
Therefore, the market will keenly watch Powell’s language at the FOMC news conference to see if there is any shift in tone.
“Investors will be listening very carefully to the Fed chair, and a dovish posture can influence the market,” said markets commentator James DePorre in an X post on Wednesday.
“The cut matters, but Powell’s words at the press conference are more important,” OptionsTrading101 told their X followers on Tuesday.
Traders are also looking to Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report, as well as a number of Trump tariff deadlines and how they will impact the crypto market.
What’s next for Bitcoin price?
Currently, $120,000 is the key level traders are watching for Bitcoin. Multiple analysts said that a high volume push through above this resistance opens the door for a swift move to fresh all-time highs.
“A confirmed breakout beyond this zone could shift market dynamics, bringing the $141K region into focus,” Glassnode said in its latest “Week Onchain” report.
The $141,000 level matches two standard deviations above the STH realized price. As shown in the chart below.
Glassnode added:
“This is an area where key onchain metrics suggest profit-taking could sharply intensify.”
Another level to watch is $125,000, which represents the STH cost basis pushed one standard deviation higher.
On the downside, traders should keep an eye on Bitcoin’s STH cost basis at $105,400 and the yearly open around $93,000, which appears to coincide with the STH cost basis pushed one standard deviation lower.
A chart shared by popular analyst Killa suggests $114,000-$116,000 as a key area of interest, as the BTC price could drop below it to fill the fair gap value to $112,000 before recovering.
Similarly, SuperBitcoinBro, an anonymous BTC analyst, highlighted that Bitcoin could sweep down to as low as $112,000 first before a “squeeze higher” with the next major liquidity cluster between $119,800 and $121,000.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: SuperBitcoinBro
Nebraskangooner, another Bitcoin analyst, said that the BTC price will remain in range “until Powell speaks to make a big move.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Twenty One Capital is reportedly exploring a strategy that would allow it to issue US dollar loans backed by Bitcoin collateral, Bloomberg reported Wednesday, citing a person familiar with the matter.
“Optionality is wealth; for us everything is on the table because we think we can do anything,” a spokesperson for the crypto company reportedly said.
Twenty One Capital, backed by Cantor Fitzgerald, has expanded its Bitcoin holdings to at least 43,500 BTC, about 1,500 Bitcoin (BTC) more than originally projected. The company recently acquired about 5,800 BTC from stablecoin issuer Tether, pushing its total holdings to an estimated $5.13 billion at current prices.
Launched in April, the company aims to build one of the largest Bitcoin treasuries and is supported by Tether, Bitfinex and SoftBank. A planned merger with SPAC Cantor Equity Partners is expected to take the company public in the near future.
Twenty One Capital holds over 43,000 BTC. Source: BitcoinTreasuries.Net
Related: Fees, collateral give DeFi edge as TradFi eyes crypto loans: 1inch exec
Firms move beyond hodling
As digital assets become part of balance sheets, public companies and funds are moving beyond the old hodl strategy. Many now lend out Bitcoin, stake Ether (ETH) or write options to generate yield on dormant holdings.
Bitcoin miners like MARA Holdings and CleanSpark are pioneering yield-generating strategies, using crypto options and derivatives to boost revenue instead of passively holding Bitcoin. CleanSpark reportedly plans to explore more complex derivatives, aiming to profit from market volatility.
JPMorgan Chase is also reportedly exploring the option of lending against crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ether (ETH). The Financial Times reported this may happen by 2026, though the plans are subject to change.
Cointelegraph reached out to Twenty One Capital for comment but had not received a response by publication.
Related: How to buy a home with a crypto-backed loan
Crypto lending picks up
As reported, San Francisco-based Divine Research has issued about 30,000 unbacked short-term USDC (USDC) loans since December 2024, targeting underserved overseas borrowers. The firm uses Sam Altman’s iris-scanning World ID to verify users and prevent repeat defaults through duplicate accounts.
Meanwhile, decentralized finance lending has also seen a rebound. According to Sygnum’s Q3 2025 Investment Outlook, DeFi lending hit an all-time high of $70 billion locked last quarter, and liquid staking surpassed 30% of Ether’s supply.
“The DeFi lending sector is one of the strongest beneficiaries of market rallies, with active loans on Ethereum surging to new all-time highs as investors take on greater risk and leveraged exposure,” Sygnum wrote.
Magazine: Will Robinhood’s tokenized stocks REALLY take over the world? Pros and cons
Sui Research has introduced a cryptographic framework that could offer protection against quantum computing threats without requiring hard forks, address changes or key updates.
Cryptographer Kostas Chalkias wrote in a Monday X post that the recent research paper he co-authored with Sui Research constitutes “a major breakthrough in quantum transition of ‘some’ blockchains.” He explained that while the new approach would apply to Sui, Solana, Near, Cosmos and other networks, it would not apply to Ethereum and Bitcoin.
“As far as I know, this is the first backward-compatible quantum-safe upgrade path for blockchain wallets to avoid future forks or freezing accounts,” Chalkias said.
Dan Dadybayo, a researcher at Unstoppable Wallet, told Cointelegraph that this paper “is one of the most important cryptographic breakthroughs we’ve seen in recent years.” He explained that it enables quantum-safe wallet upgrades without requiring changes to addresses, re-signing or a hard fork.
A hard fork is a permanent change to a blockchain’s protocol that is not backward-compatible, meaning nodes running the old software can’t validate blocks created under the new rules.
Hard forks have the potential to be contentious and result in two separate networks if not fully adopted by network maintainers. Notable examples include Bitcoin (BTC) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH), as well as Ether (ETH) and Ethereum Classic (ETC).
IBM Quantum System One in Ehningen, Germany. Source: Wikimedia
Related: Quantum computers could bring lost Bitcoin back to life: Here’s how
The looming quantum threat
While Chalkias said he doubts “we’re anywhere near quantum supremacy that can break cryptography soon,” the threat is recognized as real by many experts.
As quantum computers become increasingly capable of breaking the cryptography that underpins blockchains, developers are seeking solutions with growing urgency.
In the case of Bitcoin, there are also increasingly heated community discussions. During a mid-April interview with Cointelegraph, early cypherpunk Adam Back, cited by Satoshi Nakamoto in the Bitcoin white paper, suggested that quantum computing pressure may reveal whether the blockchain’s pseudonymous creator is alive.
Back explained that quantum computing could make the Bitcoin held by Satoshi Nakamoto vulnerable to being stolen, forcing him to move it to a new address to avoid losing access to his coins. The Bitcoin community could also be forced to decide whether to freeze addresses that are vulnerable to a quantum computing attack when those attacks become practical. Chalkias added:
“Once quantum computers arrive, millions of wallets, including Satoshi’s, could be drained instantly. If your public key is visible, it will eventually be cracked.“
Related: Bitcoin’s quantum countdown has already begun, Naoris CEO says
How this innovation changes the equation
Most solutions to the quantum computing threat include changing keys to new ones based on post-quantum cryptography and a deep rework of the software that he network is based on. Instead, with the newly suggested solution, it would be possible to perform quantum-safe wallet upgrades without changing addresses, re-signing or requiring a hard fork.
The breakthrough focuses on chains that use the Edwards-curve Digital Signature Algorithm, or EdDSA.
Dadybayo said that “this is possible because EdDSA-based [Edwards-curve digital signature algorithm] chains like Sui, Solana and Near derive private keys deterministically from a seed which can be used in zero-knowledge proofs to authorize a secure transition, even for dormant accounts.” Zero-knowledge proofs allow users to prove that they know the seed from which their keys are derived without revealing the key.
Tomer Ashur, scientific director at cryptography research firm 3MI Labs, told Cointelegraph that this approach “allows to hide certain data that a quantum adversary would need for attacking the scheme.” He added:
“Rather than replacing EdDSA, what this approach does is to fortify the algorithm against quantum attacks. ”
The chain can accept this zero-knowledge proof as an authorization to accept a post-quantum public key as the network’s new key. This would avoid the need for new account IDs (the old EdDSA public key would still be used), re-signing of old transactions or a hard fork.
Most importantly, dormant accounts are covered. In other words, if Bitcoin used EdDSA signatures from its inception, there would be no heated discussions around whether Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin would be frozen in the future.
Robert Roose, founder of Cardano interoperability protocol Mynth, admitted that — if the paper is correct — this is a major development. “Caveat on the if,” he added.
Magazine: Bitcoin vs. the quantum computer threat: Timeline and solutions (2025–2035)
Crypto market analysts are optimistic as July winds to a close, and Bitcoin reserves on crypto exchanges are down 2% on the month.
This is a bullish signal. A decrease in exchange reserves indicates people are taking their Bitcoin (BTC) off exchanges and holding it, anticipating the price to go higher. While 2% on the month sounds like small potatoes, it continues the overall decrease in exchange reserves since January.
In the US, the House of Representatives passed three crypto laws in July. One of them — the GENIUS Act regulating stablecoins — was signed into law by President Donald Trump. With set rules for stablecoins, and a regulatory framework in the form of the CLARITY Act making its way through the Senate, observers predict substantial growth in the stablecoin sector.
The value of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) continues to grow, with total RWA value onchain growing by 2.6%. Firms are embracing tokenized stocks, but further adoption could come with legal trouble.
Here’s July by the numbers.
Stablecoin market adds $4 billion in market cap as GENIUS Act becomes law
On July 18, Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law, which set out a series of regulations for the stablecoin industry.
It didn’t include provisions for stablecoin issuers to offer their customers interest — a major sticking point from industry bigwigs like Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong — but the law was hailed as a major step forward for the crypto industry.
In July, nearly $4 billion was added to the stablecoin supply, bringing the overall market cap of stablecoins above $250 billion.
Stablecoins have also become more active. The number of monthly active addresses was up over 20% in July to over 38 million. This reflects growing adoption of stablecoins, the total transaction value of which reached over $7 trillion in the first quarter of 2025.
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Sygnum chief investment officer Fabian Dori previously told Cointelegraph that the GENIUS Act “gives confidence to organizations and issuers to develop original, innovative ‘killer apps’ that don’t just serve their customers’ current needs but create demand for entirely new services, including payments.”
Bitcoin exchange reserves continue downward trend
The amount of Bitcoin sitting on exchanges is going down. In July, Bitcoin exchange reserves decreased 2%, continuing a trend that has persisted since the beginning of 2025.
When looking at the trend since January, the number of Bitcoin reserves on exchanges is down 14%.
July also marked the first time since 2018 that less than 15% of the overall Bitcoin supply was on exchanges. This lack of supply on exchanges and over-the-counter (OTC) desks has led some analysts to believe that there will be a Bitcoin “supply shock” in the near future, as buyer demand meets with decreased supply.
Bitcoin analysis account Crypto Chief noted the significant variance in Bitcoin’s price, which recently hit all-time highs, and the low supply of BTC on OTC desks and exchanges: “The Bitcoin balance available OTC is in freefall. We have never seen such a divergence between balance and price! You are witnessing a supply problem play out.”
Diminishing supply on exchanges means that people are switching to long-term holding. This could mean that investors are expecting a price rally or further volatility in the market, according to Ben Zhou, CEO of exchange Bybit.
Related: Bitcoin in limbo: Watch these BTC price levels ahead of FOMC
He said at a press conference in July, “In the past few months, the centralized exchange holding of Bitcoin reserves has been on a downtrend. That typically means people are not trading the market as much and they think the price is fluctuating. So, it actually means that there’s not so much confidence.”
Tokenized RWAs pass $25 billion
The total value of tokenized RWAs surpassed $25 billion, growing by about 2.5% in July.
A report from Binance stated, “As regulatory frameworks become clearer, the sector is poised for continued growth and increased participation from major industry players.”
Indeed, the total value of the RWA market has grown by 260% this year alone, driven primarily by tokenized private credit and US Treasury debt.
In July, the value of tokenized stocks grew 15% to over $400 million.
More money entered tokenized stocks in July. Source: RWA.xyz
Trading app Robinhood announced at the beginning of the month that it will be offering RWA trading. At publishing time, tokenized stock addresses were up nearly 700% on the month.
Related: Boom in RWA tokenization expected after passing of GENIUS Act — Aptos exec
Tokenized stocks may be an interesting way for firms to raise capital, but there are still legal questions, particularly when private firms like OpenAI offer so-called “equity” with no ownership rights to the public through tokens.
Regulators in some jurisdictions have raised concerns over whether there is sufficient investor protection for stock tokenholders.
Three US states pass crypto laws; Arizona axes crypto reserve bill
While the GENIUS Act and Congress’ crypto week stole headlines in July, states have also been working on expanding their regulatory frameworks for cryptocurrencies. Three states — Missouri, New Hampshire and Oregon — passed laws pertaining to crypto in January.
Missouri introduced regulations for crypto ATMs and a law that treats gold and silver specie, as well as metals-backed electronic currencies, as legal tender.
New Hampshire established a committee “to study and develop a potential regulatory framework for stable tokens and tokenized real-world assets (RWAs),” which will submit its findings by Nov. 1.
Oregon updated its law on abandoned property to include crypto, “treating them as abandoned after three years and obligating holders to remit or, if instructed, liquidate them for the State Treasurer.”
In Arizona, Governor Katie Hobbs vetoed House Bill 2324, which would create a state stockpile from crypto seized by law enforcement authorities. Hobbs blocked the bill because it “disincentivizes local enforcement from working with the state on digital asset forfeiture by removing seized assets from local jurisdictions.”
Crypto firms score regulatory approval in seven countries
Governments worldwide have introduced licensing frameworks to regulate the cryptocurrency industry.
In July, seven countries formed legal structures or issued licenses to cryptocurrency firms.
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority finalized its rules for stablecoins and launched a public registry for licensed issuers.
In Europe, Bybit, OKX and CoinShares all received licenses under the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulatory framework. Bybit officially launched operations in Austria, while OKX and CoinShares set up shop in France.
Meanwhile, Ripple announced it was seeking a license under MiCA and is eyeing a European expansion through Luxembourg. AllUnity, a stablecoin project from DWS and Deutsche Bank, received approval from German financial regulators, who granted an E-Money Institution (EMI) license that will allow it to issue a euro-denominated stablecoin.
Crypto exchange Bitstamp will be able to serve customers in Singapore following approval from the country’s Monetary Authority.
In the US, both Ripple and Circle are seeking banking licenses. The license would allow the firms to offer custodial services and operate nationally under the oversight of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, rather than having to apply individually with state regulators.
Magazine: Crypto traders ‘fool themselves’ with price predictions: Peter Brandt
Corporations and Wall Street entities are starting to recognize Ether as the next emerging treasury asset as the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency and blockchain network celebrates its 10th anniversary on Wednesday.
Ethereum went live on July 30, 2015, introducing smart contract functionality and laying the foundation for the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem. The network has maintained 10 years of uninterrupted uptime.
To mark the milestone, Cointelegraph reviewed the five largest corporate Ether (ETH) holders, underscoring Ether’s rising status as a strategic reserve asset among public companies.
Source: Ethereum Foundation
Publicly-listed Bitcoin (BTC) mining company, BitMine Immersion Technologies, is the largest ETH treasury firm, holding 625,000 ETH or 0.52% of the total circulating ETH supply. The miner previously announced plans to acquire up to 5% of Ether’s supply, signaling more incoming investments after the firm announced a $1 billion stock repurchase program on Tuesday.
In second place is Nasdaq-listed Sharplink, which holds 438,190 ETH as its “primary” treasury reserve asset. The firm purchased $290 million worth of Ether between July 21 and July 27 at an average price of $3,756.
Related: Ether Machine taps demand with $1.5B institutional ETH vehicle: Finance Redefined
Bit Digital follows as the third-largest corporate ETH holder, with a total of 100,603 ETH in its holdings. On July 7, the firm announced its transition to an Ethereum treasury strategy, which included a $172 million public equity raise and the conversion of its balance sheet from Bitcoin to Ether.
ETH held by Ethereum treasury companies. Source: Standard Chartered
Ethereum node validator BTCS Inc. comes in fourth place, with 70,028 in total ETH holdings. BTCS announced the closing of a $10 million convertible note issuance program on Monday, bringing the firm’s total raised capital to $207 million for 2025 alone.
GameSquare Holdings Inc., a media and tech firm, rounds out the top five with 12,913 ETH. The company has earmarked $250 million for a broader crypto treasury management strategy.
Related: 35 companies now hold at least 1,000 Bitcoin as corporate adoption booms
Wall Street is “warming up” to Ether as a treasury reserve asset
According to Gracy Chen, CEO of crypto exchange Bitget, institutions increasingly view Ethereum as the next major digital reserve asset.
“Given the high likelihood that the world’s assets will be tokenized on the blockchain, Ethereum has a competitive advantage in capturing a large share of this market,” Chen told Cointelegraph. “Drawing on this, institutional investors consider Ethereum the next emerging treasury asset after Bitcoin.”
“Wall Street firms and the broader TradFi world are just warming up to the idea of Ethereum as a treasury reserve asset,” she added.
Ether treasury acquisitions have accelerated sharply in recent months. Since June, crypto treasury firms have purchased more than 1% of ETH’s circulating supply, outpacing Bitcoin-focused firms during the same period, according to a report published Tuesday by Standard Chartered.
The report noted that Ethereum-focused treasury firms may hold up to 10% of the total supply in the long term, citing regulatory arbitrage opportunities and programmable yield via staking and DeFi.
Combined with strong inflows into US spot Ether exchange-traded funds, the continued institutional accumulation may help push ETH above the $4,000 level — Standard Chartered’s year-end price target.
Magazine: High conviction that ETH will surge 160%, SOL’s sentiment opportunity
The US Department of Justice is not investigating Dragonfly Ventures or its executives over the venture company’s past investment in Tornado Cash, according to Haseeb Qureshi, Dragonfly’s co-founder and managing partner.
The DOJ reportedly revealed during a Monday trial that it is not targeting Dragonfly in its investigation, Qureshi said in a Tuesday post on X. “The DOJ has now backtracked,” he wrote, adding:
“They have stated on the record in the trial Monday morning that the media reports that they were planning to bring charges against Dragonfly were inaccurate, and neither Dragonfly nor any of its principals are targets in their investigation.”
Qureshi also shared transcripts of the trial, where prosecutors said there “has been inaccurate and misleading public reporting on the government’s position concerning Dragonfly and certain of its executives.”
The transcript of the trial. Source: Haseeb
Related: Dragonfly responds to DOJ scrutiny over Tornado Cash investment, vows to ‘vigorously defend’ itself
DOJ hints at Dragonfly probe in Tornado Cash case
On Friday, DOJ prosecutors suggested the agency might pursue charges against Dragonfly for its 2020 investment in Tornado Cash developer PepperSec, Inc.
In a subsequent post on X, Qureshi called the suggestion “unprecedented” and a violation of DOJ policy, arguing that speculating on third-party prosecution in public was meant to prevent Dragonfly from testifying for the defense.
Qureshi also defended Dragonfly’s early backing of Tornado Cash. “We made this investment because we believe in the importance of open-source privacy-preserving technology.” He added that Dragonfly had sought outside legal counsel before investing and was assured that Tornado Cash was compliant.
In 2022, the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned Tornado Cash, alleging it facilitated multibillion-dollar money laundering, supported cybercrime and posed a threat to national security.
Those sanctions were overturned earlier this year after Tornado Cash users filed a civil action against OFAC.
Cointelegraph was unable to contact the DOJ for confirmation.
Tornado Cash developers Roman Storm and Roman Semenov were indicted on charges of money laundering and sanctions violations in August 2023. Storm’s trial began on July 14 in New York.
On Saturday, Storm issued an urgent appeal for an additional $1.5 million to cover soaring legal fees as his high-profile crypto trial enters its third week. Storm, who has already raised over $3.9 million from the crypto community, said the costs are mounting quickly.
Magazine: Crypto traders ‘fool themselves’ with price predictions — Peter Brandt
