The Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index has fallen to its lowest level since September 2023, hinting at a potential breakout.
The short-term holder realized cap drawdown is at -8%, which is historically a bullish accumulation zone.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent price action points to a phase of quiet accumulation, but data shows that these low-volatility scenarios rarely last long.
The 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) for BTC has dropped to 40.84, falling below the threshold at 45, a level breached only 21 times over the past 149 weeks (since September 2022). Historically, this zone has preceded periods of accumulation or local bottoms, and was followed by strong upward moves. Notably, the last time BVIV hovered this low, in September 2023, BTC rallied nearly 50% from $26,000.
Since late 2022, every weekly close below 45 on the BVIV matched with periods of price consolidation or significant bullish reversals in Bitcoin, reinforcing the idea that the current volatility compression could once again set the stage for an upward breakout, if historical patterns hold true.
Bitcoin 30-day IV compared to BTC price. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
At the moment, there are signs of structural evolution. Despite BTC hitting new all-time highs and rallying strongly in May 2025, the 30-day realized volatility has continued to compress, currently sitting in the 10th percentile of the past decade.
Ecoinometrics noted that this points to a regime shift: Bitcoin may be maturing into an asset capable of delivering returns with less turbulence, an appealing trait for institutional allocators managing volatility exposure.
If this new volatility regime holds, it’s possible that BVIV may remain subdued longer than in past cycles, delaying a sharp volatility-driven price surge. That said, past behavior around these levels has skewed bullish, and investors could be keeping a close watch on any deviation.
Related: Strategy skipped Bitcoin buys last week amid new equity offering
Short-term Bitcoin holders show calm conviction
Onchain data shows that short-term holder (STH) behavior continues to signal confidence. The STH realized cap drawdown is currently at -8%, indicating that newer market participants are sitting on manageable paper losses. Historically, this zone has served as a launchpad rather than a breaking point, signaling limited panic and low forced selling.
Bitcoin STH realized cap drawdown. Source: Axel Adler Jr.
The STH market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio also supports this view, currently at 1.19 compared to the cycle high of 1.33 in November 2024. This shows a drop in speculative risk-taking, with holders choosing to sit tight rather than exit on small gains.
Likewise, Glassnode data also noted that the $110,000–$117,000 range is gradually filling in. BTC is getting accumulated on both higher and lower sides of the spectrum, with buyers stepping in on dips, while early investors remain comfortable acquiring at higher levels. This has created a staircase-like cost basis distribution, a bullish structural pattern suggesting organized accumulation rather than emotional trading.
Bitcoin cost basis distribution heatmap. Source: Glassnode
STH supply reflects a rise to 4.58 million from 4.36 million BTC, adding 227,000 BTC into active circulation. This suggests new demand continues to enter the market, or long-term holders are rotating part of their holdings.
Related: ‘Biggest trade deal ever’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Bitcoin targets $122,000, where $2 billion in short liquidations are clustered but Q3 seasonal data hints at downside.
A falling RSI, spot BTC ETF outflows, and low trading volumes point to weakening bullish momentum.
FOMC minutes and positive news from the White House could trigger a rally on Wednesday.
Bitcoin (BTC) briefly dipped below $117,000 on Tuesday, sweeping the internal liquidity built between $117,000 and $119,000 over the weekend. This liquidity absorption, often a precursor to directional moves, occurred as $100 million in long positions were liquidated. Despite the dip, the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) on the four-hour chart continues to offer dynamic support, limiting downside risk in the short term.
With minimal buy-side liquidity visible until $114,500, the path of least resistance now remains higher. The next key area of interest lies between $120,000–$122,000, an area of sell-side liquidity where stop orders are clustered. A daily supply zone between $121,400 and $123,200, representing previous price resistance, adds to this confluence, suggesting BTC may attempt to sweep the external liquidity established over the past two weeks.
Reinforcing this bias, BTC liquidation map data reveals that $2 billion in BTC short positions could be liquidated around $121,600.
Related: Bitcoin price gained 50% the last time its volatility fell this low
Can Bitcoin overcome $122,000?
While short-term market structure outlines a bullish recovery, the long-term setup indicates that BTC’s bullish momentum could be fading. A double top formation could emerge near its all-time high, reflecting buyer fatigue. Failure to break cleanly above the $123,200 daily supply zone would validate this bearish pattern, stalling price discovery.
Onchain data supports this caution. Bitcoin’s daily relative strength index dropped sharply to 51.7 from 74.4, indicating exhaustion on the spot market, while daily volumes fell to $8.6 billion, both signs of fading participation. Spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows also declined 80% week-over-week to $496 million from $2.5 billion, pointing to cooling institutional appetite.
While futures open interest remains elevated at $45.6 billion, rising long-side funding suggests growing overconfidence. Additionally, 96.9% of supply remains in profit, signaling high potential for profit-taking.
Spot BTC ETF Netflow (weekly). Source: Glassnode
August historical returns further reinforce this stance. With over 60% of the August period closing in the red with an average return of 2.56%, the upcoming month presents seasonal headwinds. Combined with weakening onchain activity, such as falling active addresses and transfer volumes, BTC may retrace in the coming weeks.
BTC historical average returns per month. Source: Axel Adler Jr.
However, this outlook could be invalidated on Wednesday. The US White House is expected to release a strategic crypto policy report, which may introduce a Bitcoin Reserve Framework and delta-neutral accumulation strategies, potentially boosting spot ETF flows and BTC treasury building.
Additionally, all eyes remain on this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. While no rate cut is expected, such an outcome could be largely priced in, given July’s consistent neutral tone. Yet, any dovish commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell could shift sentiment. If Powell hints at a potential rate cut in September, markets may front-run the expectation, driving BTC to break above $123,000 and push to new highs.
Related: Bitcoin analysts say this must happen for BTC price to hit new highs
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
The dominance of Ether’s futures volume surpassed Bitcoin for the first time since 2022.
Tron-ecosystem stablecoin activity rose, pointing to capital inflows into the altcoin ecosystem.
Ether (ETH) has gained everyone’s attention over the past few weeks, with new data showing a clear shift away from Bitcoin (BTC) as the biggest altcoin by market capitalization rallied more than 50% in a month. According to Glassnode, Ether perpetual futures volume dominance has overtaken Bitcoin for the first time since 2022, marking the “largest” volume skew in ETH’s favor on record. The analytics platform noted that this shift “confirms a meaningful rotation of speculative interest toward the altcoin sector.”
BTC vs ETH perps volume dominance. Source: Glassnode/X
Ether’s open interest dominance has also climbed to nearly 40%, the highest level since April 2023. Historically, only around 5% of days have seen a higher reading, suggesting that traders are increasingly positioning around ETH rather than BTC. This increases the probability of a growing appetite for risk and continued capital rotation into altcoin markets.
Supporting the narrative, onchain data shows a sharp increase in USDT transfers on the Tron network, with Binance driving the flow. Binance accounts for approximately 62% of all TRON-based USDT transfers, with daily volumes ranging between $2.5 to $3 billion. These large stablecoin movements typically precede periods of elevated market volatility, especially when tied to institutional positioning.
Tron USDT transfers through CEXs. Source: CryptoQuant
The growing concentration of stablecoin liquidity on Tron and Binance suggests these platforms remain the preferred infrastructure for high-frequency and high-volume trading, with liquidity possibly entering the altcoin market.
Related: Ethereum ‘ready to explode’ as ETH price reclaims $3.8K, analysts say
BNB joins altseason signal as stablecoin reserves fall
Crypto analyst Timo Oinonen noted that Binance’s native token BNB (BNB) has climbed 7.4% over the past week, significantly outperforming Bitcoin. This relative strength positions BNB as another leading indicator of the market’s shift toward altcoins.
BNB price and total stablecoins reserve decline. Source: CryptoQuant
The analyst explained that institutional activity supports this trend. Nasdaq-listed Nano Labs recently disclosed a $105 million BNB treasury, totaling 128,000 tokens. This marks a strategic move to diversify into digital assets and leverage BNB’s growing utility within the BNB Smart Chain ecosystem.
At the same time, Binance’s stablecoin reserves continue to decline, signaling that previously idle capital is being redeployed into the market. This divergence between falling stablecoin reserves and rising BNB price suggests renewed risk appetite and increased buying pressure in the altcoin space. Overall, USDT reserves on exchanges have dropped to $36 billion from a high of $45 billion in February 2025.
USDT reserves on exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant
Related: Corporations have acquired 1% of Ether supply: Standard Chartered
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Bitcoin is preparing for a range expansion in the next few days, and the trend favors the bulls.
ETH, BNB, AVAX, and PENGU are looking set for a possible upside move.
Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to break above $120,000, but a positive sign is that the bulls have not ceded much ground to the bears. Investors have again resumed pouring money into the BTC exchange-traded funds, which witnessed net inflows for the past three trading days, according to Farside Investors data.
American billionaire and hedge fund manager Ray Dalio said during an appearance on the Master Investor podcast that a 15% allocation to BTC or gold could optimize the “best return-to-risk ratio,” and act as a hedge against devaluation of fiat.
Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360
BTC’s consolidation near the highs has shifted investors’ focus toward Ether (ETH) and other select altcoins. Ether-focused treasury firms have acquired roughly 1% of the total ETH supply since the beginning of June, and that number could eventually increase 10x from current levels, according to a new report from Standard Chartered shared with Cointelegraph.
Several other firms have revealed plans to add select altcoins to their treasury, suggesting an increased institutional interest.
Let’s analyze the charts of the top 5 cryptocurrencies that look strong on the charts in the near term.
Bitcoin price prediction
Buyers have repeatedly failed to propel BTC above the $120,000 resistance, indicating a lack of demand at higher levels.
The upsloping 20-day simple moving average ($118,170) and the relative strength index (RSI) in the positive territory enhance the prospects of an upside breakout. If buyers overcome the barrier at $123,218, the BTC/USDT pair could soar toward $135,729 and thereafter to the pattern target of $150,000.
Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below $115,000, it suggests profit-booking by short-term traders. The pair may dip to the neckline of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern and then to $110,530. Buyers are expected to defend the $110,530 level with all their might because a break below it increases the risk of a drop to $100,000.
Both moving averages have flattened out on the 4-hour chart, and the RSI is just below the midpoint, signaling a balance between supply and demand. A break and close above $120,000 suggests the bulls are trying to take charge. The pair may then challenge the $123,218 overhead resistance.
On the downside, a break and close below $114,723 shifts the balance in favor of the bears. That could pull the pair to solid support at $110,530.
Ether price prediction
ETH turned down from $3,941, but the bulls are trying to maintain the price above $3,745. That suggests the bulls are trying to flip the level into support.
The upsloping 20-day SMA ($3,473) and the RSI in the overbought zone signal an advantage to buyers. If the price turns up and breaks above $3,941, the ETH/USDT pair could challenge the $4,094 level. Sellers are expected to fiercely defend the $4,094 level because a break and close above it could propel the pair to $4,868.
This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day SMA. If that happens, the pair may enter a deeper correction toward $3,250.
The price bounced off the $3,745 support, but the bulls could not clear the hurdle at $3,941. That has pulled the pair to the $3,745 level. A break and close below $3,745 could trap the aggressive bulls, pulling the pair to $3,500. Buyers are expected to defend the $3,500 level because a break below it could start a deeper correction toward $3,250.
The bulls will have to thrust the price above $3,941 to seize control. The pair could then soar to $4,094, where the bears are expected to step in.
BNB price prediction
BNB (BNB) pulled back from $861 on Monday, indicating profit booking by the short-term buyers.
The BNB/USDT pair could dip to the breakout level of $794, which is a vital support level to watch out for. If the price rebounds off $794, it suggests that the bulls have flipped the level into support. That improves the prospects of a break above $861. If that happens, the pair may rally to $900 and eventually to $1,000.
Alternatively, a break and close below $794 signals that the bulls are closing their positions in a hurry. The pair may plunge to $761, a critical level for the bulls to defend.
The pair has plunged below the 20-SMA on the 4-hour chart, indicating selling at higher levels. The pair may tumble to the 50-SMA, which is a critical level to watch out for. A break and close below the 50-SMA could sink the pair to $761.
On the other hand, a solid bounce off the 50-SMA suggests demand at lower levels. The bulls will try to push the price above the 20-SMA. If they succeed, the pair could retest the $861 resistance. A break and close above $861 could start the next leg of the uptrend to $900.
Related: Bitcoin analysts say this must happen for BTC price to hit new highs
Avalanche price prediction
Avalanche (AVAX) has been consolidating between $15.27 and $27.38 for several weeks, indicating buying on dips and selling on rallies.
The upsloping 20-day SMA ($23.52) and the RSI in the positive zone suggest that the buyers have the upper hand. If the bulls pierce the $27.38 resistance, the AVAX/USDT pair could start a new up move. The pair could rally to $36 and then to the target objective of $39.49.
Contrarily, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day SMA, it suggests that the bulls have given up. That could sink the pair to the 50-day SMA ($20.48), extending the stay inside the range for some more time.
The pair turned down sharply from $27.38 and broke below the 50-SMA on the 4-hour chart. That suggests the bulls are rushing to the exit. That may sink the pair to $23, which is expected to act as strong support.
If the price turns up from $23 and breaks above the 20-SMA, it suggests solid buying at lower levels. The bulls will then try to push the pair to $27.38. A break and close above the overhead resistance could start the next leg of the up move.
Pudgy Penguins price prediction
Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) rallied sharply in the past few days, but the bulls are facing significant resistance at $0.046.
The upsloping moving averages and the RSI in the positive territory suggest that buyers have the edge. If buyers drive the price above $0.046, the PENGU/USDT pair could start the next leg of the up move to $0.054 and later to $0.065.
The 20-day SMA ($0.033) is the crucial support to watch out for on the downside. A break and close below the 20-day SMA indicates that the bulls are booking profits. That may sink the pair to $0.028.
The price turned down from the $0.046 overhead resistance and broke below the 50-SMA on the 4-hour chart. The next support on the downside is at $0.035. If the price rebounds off $0.035, it signals demand at lower levels. That may keep the pair stuck inside a range between $0.035 and $0.046 for some time.
The bears will gain the upper hand on a break and close below the $0.035 support. That opens the gates for a decline to $0.028.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
